Charles Gaba's blog

Via the Wall St. Journal:

Top Senate negotiators said an effort to renew expired healthcare subsidies had effectively collapsed, likely ending the hopes of 20 million Americans that the tax-credit expansion could be revived and lower their monthly insurance premiums.

Talks had centered on a proposal from Sens. Bernie Moreno (R., Ohio) and Susan Collins (R., Maine) to extend a version of the enlarged Affordable Care Act subsidies for at least two years, while cutting off higher-income people from participating and eventually giving enrollees the option of putting money into health savings accounts. It also would eliminate zero-dollar premium plans. But lawmakers from both parties now say the chances of a deal have all but evaporated.

“It’s effectively over,” Moreno said Wednesday. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.)—the architect of an adjacent plan—agreed. While Collins declined to be as definitive, she did say that it was “certainly difficult.”

Originally posted 1/17/26

The Maryland Health Benefit Exchange has their own Open Enrollment dashboard which, while not providing nearly as much data as New Mexico's, at least breaks out the top-line data. With the 2026 Open Enrollment Period (OEP) now over in the Old Line State, here's what their final numbers look like (barring any last-minute clerical corrections):

  • Total Renewals: 236,338
  • New Enrollees: 47,815
  • Total Enrollments: 255,612
  • Disenrollments (already subtracted from renewals)
  • 67.4% are subsidized; 32.6% are unsubsidized

They also break out total enrollment by county, which isn't terribly relevant to me.

Final 2025 OEP enrollment in Maryland was 247,243, so this represents a 3.4% QHP selection increase vs. last year, in spite of the enhanced federal tax credits expiring...

MNsure, Minnesota's state-based ACA exchange, has posted their January Board Directors Meeting presentation, which includes the final 2026 Open Enrollment Period tally along with a bunch of other data points of interest:

Plan Year 2025 (November 1, 2024 – December 31, 2025)

  • Total (Medical Assistance, MinnesotaCare, QHP) 357,227
  • Medical Assistance Applicants 141,897
  • MinnesotaCare Applicants 17,736
  • Qualified Health Plan (QHP) Sign-ups 197,594
  • QHP New Consumers 74,423
  • Qualified Dental Plan Sign-ups 59,575

via Covered California's Open Enrollment Dashboard, as of January 31st (which was also the final 2026 OEP deadline):

  • New enrollments: 235,055
  • Active renewals: 538,476
  • Autorenewals: 1,153,840
  • Total: 1,927,371

The final tally last year (via the official 2025 OEP Public Use File, not the Covered CA dashboard):

  • New enrollments: 345,711
  • Active renewals: 433,022
  • Autorenewals: 1,200,771
  • Total: 1,979,504

Overall, that means...

The 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period is now officially over in every state.

For most Americans, if you missed the deadline to enroll in ACA exchange healthcare coverage, your options are pretty limited at this point...but there are some exceptions, so let's take a look.

NATIVE AMERICANS / ALASKA NATIVES:

Members of federally-recognized Native American tribes or Alaska Natives can enroll in ACA coverage year-round:

If you’re an American Indian or an Alaska Native, you may have new health coverage benefits and protections in the Marketplace.

A few weeks ago, I tore apart an absurdly misleading Wall St. Journal editorial which grossly misinterpreted the then-ongoing 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period data to falsely claim that the negative impact of the enhanced ACA tax credits expiring was far less severe than predicted.

After calling them out for some sloppy summary numbers which understated the enrollment drop by over 144,000 people out of the gate, I delved into the meat of their false argument:

...the above is fairly minor compared to the most egregiously misleading claim in the WSJ piece, which appears in the next paragraph:

The Congressional Budget Office’s ObamaCare baseline in 2024 assumed 18.9 million people would enroll in plans this year if the enhanced subsidies vanished.

Let's take a look at that CBO "baseline," shall we?

The Trump Regime has published an update to the official Medicaid/CHIP enrollment data:

October 2025 Key Findings

Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment

  • In October 2025, 76.8 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP.
  • 69.5 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid, and 7.2 million individuals were enrolled in CHIP.
  • 40.2 million adults were enrolled in Medicaid, and there were 36.6 million Medicaid child and CHIP enrollees.

Total Medicaid/CHIP enrollment in October 2025 of ~76.8 million dropped about 0.9% from September 2025, or by around 690,000 people.

Earlier today the New Jersey Dept. of Banking & Insurance put out a press release urging NJ residents to enroll in ACA coverage ahead of the final enrollment deadline on Saturday, January 31st.

The release also included some enrollment stats (including some pretty depressing ones), as well as a link to Get Covered NJ's Week 9 enrollment report:

As of January 2, 2026, a total of 493,727 residents are signed up for 2026 health coverage with Get Covered New Jersey, including 50,108 new consumers and 203,836 consumers who actively selected a plan. During the 2025 plan year, a total of 481,151 residents were signed up for 2025 health coverage with Get Covered New Jersey, including 70,507 new consumers as of January 2, 2025. The number of new consumers enrolling in coverage has decreased by nearly 30% in plan year 2026.

via the New Jersey Dept. of Banking & Insurance:

TRENTON — As the January 31 final deadline for Open Enrollment approaches, New Jersey residents still in need of health insurance are encouraged to explore plan options for 2026 through Get Covered New Jersey, the State’s Official Health Insurance Marketplace, New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance Acting Commissioner Susan Ochs said today, reminding residents that financial help and community-based enrollment assistance remains available.

Open Enrollment is the only time of year residents can enroll in a plan, unless they have a major life event, such as marriage, pregnancy, or a move that qualifies them for a Special Enrollment Period. 

Late this afternoon, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) published an updated 2026 Open Enrollment Period snapshot report:

Marketplace 2026 Open Enrollment Period (OEP) Report: National Snapshot 

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) reports that 23.0 million consumers have signed up for 2026 individual market health insurance coverage through the Marketplaces since the start of the 2026 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period (OEP) on November 1, 2025.

This includes 15.8 million Marketplace plan selections in the 30 states using the HealthCare.gov platform for the 2026 plan year and 7.2 million plan selections in the 20 states and the District of Columbia with state-based Exchanges (SBEs) that are using their own eligibility and enrollment platforms.[1]

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