via Amy Lotven of Inside Health Policy:

Key Insurers Expect To Lose Nearly 3M Combined ACA Enrollee By End Of 2026

Key publicly traded insurers reported in recent earnings calls that they expect to lose nearly 3 million enrollees combined by the end of 2026, buoying stakeholders’ fear that the loss of the enhanced tax credits will drive more people from the marketplace than the 1 million fewer signups reported by CMS

While CMS’ mid-January snapshot showed that about 1 million fewer people enrolled in an Affordable Care Act plan during open enrollment compared to last year, insurers in recent earnings calls are echoing state exchange officials’ belief that true results will take time, and four large companies reveal they expect at least 2.8 million fewer ACA exchange consumers.

Also, in line with comments from state exchange officials, carriers are seeing more consumers enrolled in less-expensive bronze plans, which have higher co-pays and deductibles.

A couple of weeks ago, the Washington Health Benefit Exchange posted some basic info on their final 2026 Open Enrollment Period data:

OLYMPIA, Wash. – More than 290,000 Washingtonians selected a plan...

...40,000 fewer Washingtonians are receiving premium tax credits in 2026 than 2025. Some customers saw significant increases in their health insurance premiums, resulting in more than 61,000 customers changing their plans.

Customers also canceled their coverage more than any year prior — more than 28,000 in 2026 compared to just over 20,000 in 2025. Based on higher costs, it is expected that even more customers will disenroll before final counts are published in spring.

...Preliminary numbers show that more than 119,000 Washingtonians are receiving Cascade Care Savings and more than 188,000 are receiving federal premium tax credits.

via Pennie, Pennsylvania's state-based ACA exchange:

One in Five Pennie Enrollees Drop Health Coverage Due to Expired Federal Tax Credits

High demand seen for quality affordable coverage during Open Enrollment Period.

Harrisburg, PA – Pennie, Pennsylvania’s official health insurance marketplace, concluded its 2026 Open Enrollment Period with enrollment totaling around 486,000 and with adverse effects from unprecedented cost increases. A doubling of premium costs caused around 85,000 Pennsylvanians to drop coverage, meaning that nearly 1 in 5 enrollees were unable to keep their health plan for 2026.

via the Maine Dept. of Health & Human Services:

CoverME.gov is Maine's state-based health insurance marketplace, administered by the Maine Department of Health and Human Services' Office of the Health Insurance Marketplace. The 2026 Open Enrollment period recently ended, during which individuals and families were able to compare and enroll in private health insurance plans and determine eligibility for financial assistance.

Preliminary data from the 2026 Open Enrollment period indicate several emerging trends in Maine's individual health insurance market. While many Mainers enrolled in coverage through CoverME.gov, early indicators point to declining enrollment and increased affordability pressures that may affect coverage stability for consumers and the broader health insurance system.

Key themes from this year's Open Enrollment:

Yesterday morning, Dana Bash of CNN’s “State of the Union” briefly interviewed Mehmet Oz, Administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).

From the transcript:

OZ: We have seen in the ACA marketplace where there was a baseline 83 percent subsidy, that, when you take away the extra 5 percent, which is what the enhanced premium subsidies represent, it doesn't really affect enrollment.

In fact, we're still roughly at around 23, 24 million people. And that's despite the fact that all the fearmongers were saying, we're going to lose eight, 10, 12 million people. No one seems to have left the exchange.

This is exactly the sort of garbage claim that I predicted Oz would be trying to spin back in December:

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has posted an official update to the enrollment data for ACA Medicaid expansion through June 2025.

According to the new report, total enrollment from December 2024 through June 2025 dropped by 517,000 people, or roughly 2.5%, standing at 20.4 million nationally as of last June, so it doesn't look like the Trump Admin has started cooking these particular books, at least not yet.

This will likely change radically with the draconian provisions of the GOP's Big Ugly Bill starting to kick in soon, however.

via GetCovered Illinois:

Limited-time marketplace transition year Special Enrollment Period

This year, with the multitude of unique factors impacting access and affordability, Get Covered Illinois is using its authority as a state-based marketplace to offer a limited-time Special Enrollment Period for customers previously enrolled in a 2025 health plan through HealthCare.gov.

Who Qualifies for this Special Enrollment Period?

To qualify for this limited-time Special Enrollment Period, the enrollee must:

• have been automatically renewed in a 2026 health plan through Get Covered Illinois, and
• have not made an active plan selection or terminated/canceled their coverage during this past Open Enrollment Period, and
• have not claimed their Get Covered Illinois account by February 1, 2026.

How long is this Special Enrollment Period available?

Back in December, I issued a strong warning that the official 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period data would have to be taken with a huge grain of salt, since the actual effectuated enrollment data would likely take much longer to know:

...I'm bringing all of this back up again today because I strongly suspect that the situation is about to reverse itself, with the Trump Administration already preparing to brag about impressive-sounding ACA enrollment numbers for 2026 in spite of the enhanced tax credits expiring less than 60 hours from now...even though the actual negative impact of the expiring tax credits (along with several other administrative policy changes made by CMS this year) likely won't be known for several months after Open Enrollment officially ends in January.

Via the Wall St. Journal:

Top Senate negotiators said an effort to renew expired healthcare subsidies had effectively collapsed, likely ending the hopes of 20 million Americans that the tax-credit expansion could be revived and lower their monthly insurance premiums.

Talks had centered on a proposal from Sens. Bernie Moreno (R., Ohio) and Susan Collins (R., Maine) to extend a version of the enlarged Affordable Care Act subsidies for at least two years, while cutting off higher-income people from participating and eventually giving enrollees the option of putting money into health savings accounts. It also would eliminate zero-dollar premium plans. But lawmakers from both parties now say the chances of a deal have all but evaporated.

“It’s effectively over,” Moreno said Wednesday. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.)—the architect of an adjacent plan—agreed. While Collins declined to be as definitive, she did say that it was “certainly difficult.”

Originally posted 1/17/26

The Maryland Health Benefit Exchange has their own Open Enrollment dashboard which, while not providing nearly as much data as New Mexico's, at least breaks out the top-line data. With the 2026 Open Enrollment Period (OEP) now over in the Old Line State, here's what their final numbers look like (barring any last-minute clerical corrections):

• Total Renewals: 236,338
• New Enrollees: 47,815
• Total Enrollments: 255,612
• Disenrollments (already subtracted from renewals)
• 67.4% are subsidized; 32.6% are unsubsidized

They also break out total enrollment by county, which isn't terribly relevant to me.

Final 2025 OEP enrollment in Maryland was 247,243, so this represents a 3.4% QHP selection increase vs. last year, in spite of the enhanced federal tax credits expiring...